One measure of stocks suggests it’s time for investors to take some caution, according to BTIG. The S & P 500 last week climbed more than 14% above its 200-day moving average, a historical extreme that signals a pullback could be in the offing, the firm’s chief market technician noted Sunday. The 200-day moving average is a technical measure used by investors and traders to gauge an asset’s longer-term momentum. Trading above it is usually seen as a positive. However, this far above the metric is “quite stretched historically. The big question is: do we get a correction through time, or price,” BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note. “The latter has been elusive for the last five months, but we do think there is a window here for some modest price weakness.” Stocks registered fresh record closing highs last week after the Federal Reserve said it remains on track to lower interest rates this year, assuaging concerns for worried investors and sending tech shares surging. That said, some on Wall Street are concerned stocks are looking overextended after their recent rally. Krinsky thinks there could be risk of consolidation over the near term. He noted the number of S & P 500 reaching 52-week highs hit its highest level in three years. Such strong uptrends preceded pullbacks in both 2018 and 2020. On top of that, seasonal trends — which had been positive — are about to shift against investors, Krinsky noted. April is the worst month for the long/short momentum strategy, which refers to when investors snap up recent winners, while shorting recent underperformers. On average, the strategy loses 4.15% on average during the month. In fact, while the momentum long index has declined seven of the last 9 years in April, the short side averages a 5% gain. Krinsky advised investors stick to utilities, which historically outperformed during the month.
